Biden Balancing Act: In the aftermath of the Hamas attacks on October 7, President Biden initially held a close relationship with Israel. However, over the past two months, tensions between the White House and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government have escalated. Biden publicly accused Israel of “indiscriminate” bombing, using unusually blunt language that can strain diplomatic ties.
The geopolitical concern now revolves around whether the White House’s unwavering support for Israel’s operation will isolate the United States internationally and potentially jeopardize broader national security objectives. Simultaneously, the prolonged Israeli strikes in Gaza, resulting in civilian casualties, are raising domestic political challenges for Biden, impacting his coalition ahead of the 2024 election.
To address the escalating situation, Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is undertaking a trip to Israel. His discussions with Netanyahu and other officials will focus on aid to Gaza, the next phase of the military campaign, and efforts to minimize harm to civilians. Sullivan’s visit implies Washington’s concern that Israel did not adequately heed warnings to protect civilians during its operations.
Divergences between the U.S. and Israeli governments are becoming evident, not only regarding immediate post-war plans for Gaza but also concerning the long-term aspiration of a Palestinian state.
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The toll on human lives has been devastating, triggering not only increased antisemitism but also exposing internal divisions in the United States, including equivocation on discrimination issues. Criticism is mounting, even within Biden’s political base, and there are indications of global disapproval over U.S. support for Israel. Notably, key allies like Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have diverged from Washington, urging a ceasefire in Gaza.
The diplomatic complexities have prompted the White House to acknowledge concerns about Israel’s military campaign, emphasizing the importance of global opinion. However, the extent to which domestic and international pressure will influence Biden’s approach remains uncertain. Despite his growing frustration, Biden’s core support for Israel is likely to persist, making tangible pressure on Netanyahu unlikely in the immediate future. The potential impact on a $14 billion aid package to Israel remains uncertain, with the administration currently having no plans to attach conditions, despite calls from some Democratic lawmakers and human rights organizations. The political cost for Biden is rising, but significant changes in his stance on Israel are still speculative.
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